That YouGov Poll, Etcetera

Mick Fealty notes that last week's YouGov poll showing Livingstone increasing his lead over Johnson was based on a very small sample and should therefore be treated with caution. Fair point. Mick directs us to UK Polling Report where Anthony Wells provides a fuller analysis. This reveals that in terms of share of the vote "Others" made the largest gain compared with the last poll and that Brian Paddick's share also rose slightly - by one percent. It also shows that Livingstone's share fell by one percent, something Boris Gilligan drew our attention to on Monday:

"For all Ken's crowing about his increased lead in last week's opinion poll, it showed the more important measure, his vote share, falling slightly."

What Boris Gilligan didn't mention was that Boris Johnson's share fell by even more - by four percent. What a curious oversight. Anthony also explains that the Livingstone camp's claim that "internet polling has always underestimated Ken's support compared with actual elections and other opinion polls," is wrong where "actual elections" are concerned. Where ever would we be without psephology?