Polls & Posting: Big News!

What to think? A new YouGov/ITV London poll shows Johnson in the lead. Political Betting compares the results with the YouGov poll before last - the one done in December and published right at the start of the year - and shows that Johnson's share of 44% is the same as it was then while Livingstone's has fallen by five points to 39%. Paddick is the beneficiary - he's gone up from seven percent to 12%. Could this represent disillusion with Ken among Labour supporters?

Then there's Team Livingstone's release of its private polling by MORI, as reported by the Guardian yesterday, shortly before the YouGov stuff came out. This shows that among those certain to vote, 38% would opt for Livingstone, 35% for Johnson and 14% for Paddick, and that in a straight run-off Livingstone would win the support of 49% compared with Johnson's 47%.

Now Political Betting has, admirably, dug out more information. Mike Smithson has learned from MORI that its survey was conducted between 8th and 12th February with 808 Londoners compared with YouGov's, which was done last week (sample, 1003). Mike points out that, "In between the MORI and YouGov polls Lee Jasper was suspended." Does any disillusion with Livingstone stem from the Jasper suspension? If so, Livingstone's decision to call in the police and suspend Jasper - widely believed as an attempt to close down the issue - has backfired, at least for now.

But, like I said at the start, What to think? Boris Lydall has been wondering the same thing. His limited, though perfectly reasonable, conclusion is that it's a very close two-horse race. This has inspired a comment from One London's Damian Hockney AM, complaining that the media is only interested in the Big Two. This inspired me to post a comment of my own, the first bit of which went:

Damian Hockney is welcome to give an interview to me, which I'll carry in full in audio form on my blog.

http://davehill.typepad.com/london3ms/

Best Wishes!

And guess what? It's appeared!