Crime Stats Hell (Part 1)

A friendly criminologist has directed me to this report from the Commons Home Affairs Committee, published last July, into police funding and its efficacy. It contains the following in the Summary on page three:

"A significant drop in overall crime as measured by the British Crime Survey (BCS) occurred between 1995 and 2001 but the downward trend has levelled off since then. In contrast, the bulk of additional police funding was provided during the second half of the last decade, from 2000–01 to 2004–05. It follows that the significant decrease in overall BCS-measured crime occurred before any significant increase in police funding or police officer numbers."

The BCS stats are regarded by most experts - including those at the Home Office - as the most reliable guide to rates of offending against persons and property. Ken Livingstone prefers to cite the Met's recorded crime figures, which show consistent falls. Whatever, if crime really has fallen on Livingstone's watch, have the increased numbers of police he takes credit for had anything to do with it? Discuss.