Labour In 2012

It's absurd to be speculating about who will run for Labour in 2012. Yet Ken Livingstone's all-but declaration that he's a contender - he's again declined to rule it out - coupled with Mayor Johnson's obvious vulnerabilities are making it hard to resist. Significantly, two commentators who backed Livingstone in May are now looking elsewhere: Tristram Hunt has urged him to abandon thoughts of a comeback; Johann Hari thinks Oona King would be a better candidate. Tony Travers has written of Tessa Jowell, Trevor Phillips and Nick Raynsford as plausible runners, though I can't see any of those beating Johnson, assuming he'd be the Tory opponent (and that could be quite a large assumption). Jon Cruddas has been spoken of too. He'd have a lot to offer, but does he want the job? Does King? The latest name in the frame is Sir Alan Sugar. I can't see him winning either: he'd lose the Labour core vote instantly. Which brings us back to Ken. I had doubts about his running this year, and I'd have bigger ones about him running in 2012, especially if he's unwilling to address the reasons why he lost two months ago. But can Labour come up with anyone better?

Comments

[Tory Troll]

It may seem very early to be speculating about this, but you can bet that the maneuvering for it is already well on its way.

The Labour field is as you say not particularly strong at the moment, but that could change after the next general election when (if the polls continue as they are) there will be quite a few high profile Labour MPs out of a job.

I think that there is also still room for another strong independent candidate to come into the race. Again, no-one really springs to mind, but that doesn't mean there aren't high-profile people who would like the job. The electoral success of Boris who has the celebrity factor but not the experience will certainly have made it seem more feasible for an independent.

Also, I think that the Lib Dems could come up with a strong candidate next time. Someone like Vince Cable, Charles Kennedy, or even Paddy Ashdown would have a wide appeal and would at the very least split the vote in a way that Paddick failed to.

Whoever comes forward though it will be another fascinating race. I bet you can't wait to get yourself back on the campaign trail Dave!

[Geoff]

Ken significantly outperformed Labour in one their worst set of election results ever. In part thanks to him Labour gained an extra assembly seat. Friends of mine who don't read political blogs and who aren't obsessed with politics amazed me with their enthusiasm for him, and for their sense of loss when he lost.

Since he lost, he's continued to work hard as a much needed opposition to Boris (that's obviously not to discount the sterling work the bloggers are doing). Ken obviously has his flaws, but until I see any other Labour candidate with a genuine passion for London and a commitment to working as hard as Ken at keeping in Boris in check for the next four years I can't see how any of those names mentioned would come close to Ken as a vote winner.