London: Mayor & More

Ken, Harrow & Diversity

Bit of a tiff in the Tory borough.

My Debut On Guardian Politics Site

I feel very honoured. It's here.

Blears To Biff Boris

From Boulton and Co:

"It's an unusual compliment to say the least - describing him as 'A nasty, right-wing elitist, with odious views and criminal friends like Conrad Black,' as [Hazel] Blears is expected to say. But it is a compliment nonetheless, in that the full-blooded assault on Johnson launched at today's Labour Spring Conference represents an acknowedgment that the Tory mayoral candidate needs to be taken seriously. 'Boris is no joke,' Blears will stress...If some in the Labour high command had expected the Johnson campaign to implode at some point, plainly they now recognise that they can't rely on his self-destructive streak to hand them victory on a plate."

Quite. But, as commenter Elizabeth Davies - of Cape Town - observes:

"Careful Hazel this tactic could backfire, Hillary Clinton has tried that tactic on Obama and it hasn't worked yet. Be careful what you pray for!"

Quite, again.

The Case Of The Cigar Case, Er, Case

The business of Boris Johnson and his liberation of Tariq Aziz's smoking kit is a micro-model of media spin. I don't know who gave the Telegraph the letter he was sent by the police, asking for it back. But I do know that Boris's paper's coverage of it has been constructed as an indictment of the Met's top man:

"Scotland Yard has privately conceded that it blundered in launching an investigation into the alleged theft by Boris Johnson of a cigar case owned by Saddam Hussein's former deputy prime minister, according to sources. The first that Sir Ian Blair, the Metropolitan Police Commissioner, knew about the inquiry into Mr Johnson, the Conservative candidate in the London Mayoral contest, was when he read about it in yesterday's Daily Telegraph."

Love it.

Where's Boris Been?

Twickenham, this afternoon. But don't quote me.

Paddick's Housing Manifesto

Is it me or has there been next to no coverage of Brian Paddick's housing manifesto, published on Tuesday? Well, here's some to help make up for that.

Martin Bright Responds

Not a signatory of the Compass letter, surprise, surprise.

Labour Anxiety

I've argued that if Livingstone is to win he needs to up his game. Now a fellow Hackney blogger and Labour Councillor is asking his party to do the same.

Why Vote Livingstone?

Why did Anthony Barnett of Our Kingdom website sign the Compass letter in (qualified) support of Livingstone? Let's find out.

Polls & Posting: Big News!

What to think? A new YouGov/ITV London poll shows Johnson in the lead. Political Betting compares the results with the YouGov poll before last - the one done in December and published right at the start of the year - and shows that Johnson's share of 44% is the same as it was then while Livingstone's has fallen by five points to 39%. Paddick is the beneficiary - he's gone up from seven percent to 12%. Could this represent disillusion with Ken among Labour supporters?

Then there's Team Livingstone's release of its private polling by MORI, as reported by the Guardian yesterday, shortly before the YouGov stuff came out. This shows that among those certain to vote, 38% would opt for Livingstone, 35% for Johnson and 14% for Paddick, and that in a straight run-off Livingstone would win the support of 49% compared with Johnson's 47%.

Now Political Betting has, admirably, dug out more information. Mike Smithson has learned from MORI that its survey was conducted between 8th and 12th February with 808 Londoners compared with YouGov's, which was done last week (sample, 1003). Mike points out that, "In between the MORI and YouGov polls Lee Jasper was suspended." Does any disillusion with Livingstone stem from the Jasper suspension? If so, Livingstone's decision to call in the police and suspend Jasper - widely believed as an attempt to close down the issue - has backfired, at least for now.

But, like I said at the start, What to think? Boris Lydall has been wondering the same thing. His limited, though perfectly reasonable, conclusion is that it's a very close two-horse race. This has inspired a comment from One London's Damian Hockney AM, complaining that the media is only interested in the Big Two. This inspired me to post a comment of my own, the first bit of which went:

Damian Hockney is welcome to give an interview to me, which I'll carry in full in audio form on my blog.

http://davehill.typepad.com/london3ms/

Best Wishes!

And guess what? It's appeared!