London: Mayor & More

YouGov & Me

Point of information. Some readers of this blog seem to be under the impression that during the mayoral campaign I claimed that YouGov's polling figures were wrong. No I didn't. Not once. Not MeGov.

The Long Wait Begins

The polling stations are now closed. We'll know the result by this time tomorrow.

Move Fast!

My wife Sheila and one of our daughters just came back from the Chinese takeaway. On the way and while waiting for their order, Sheila asked everyone she met if they'd voted yet.

An elderly Muslim man said he had voted: "I voted for Ken." All his family had voted for Ken too.

In the takeaway a Ghanaian man said he had voted: "I voted for Ken. I always vote for Ken."

Sheila asked him if he knew Boris might win.

"Not round here, he won't win. Labour could put a donkey up round here and it would win. How else do you think Diane Abbott keeps getting in?"

A young black man with his hood up overhead this: "I voted for Ken," he said. "You've got to vote for Ken."

The polling stations close in fifteen minutes. If you haven't voted yet, move fast. Vote for Ken.

At Londonist: Vote, Vote, Vote!

A fellow Hackneyite arrives at my local polling station which I visited shortly after I'd filed the following to Londonist this morning:

Vote, vote, vote! That's the partisan message from Londonist today as Londoners go to the polling stations to choose their next mayor and members of the London Assembly. As we write we are reliably informed that a new YouGov poll for today's Evening Standard will show Boris Johnson heading for victory over Ken Livingstone by six percent of the vote after electors' second preferences are taken into account. But any news stand message on our streets later today implying that the Tory is coasting to victory should be ignored.

Opinion Poll News

Here are the new YouGov findings - showing a six point lead for Johnson after second preferences are taken into account - and the Standard's report on them. Team Ken's response?

"Throughout this election the Evening Standard/YouGov polls have given the appearance not so much of providing information on Londoners’ views but rather of trying to influence voters and the media by showing big leads for Boris Johnson when every other conventional poll has shown Livingstone and Johnson to be neck and neck, and indeed, Livingstone ahead.

More Lib Dems 4 Ken Livingstone

Following Simon Hughes's barely coded message yesterday evening, three London Lib Dem members have confided to me this morning that they'll be voting to stop Boris.

Opinion Poll News!

Yep, YouGov puts Johnson eleven points ahead on first preferences and ten ahead after factoring in the seconds. So Boris is either home and dry or he isn't. Does that help?

Opinion Poll News?

A commenter at Political Betting has claimed to have had a whisper that this morning's Standard/YouGov poll will give Johnson an eleven point lead. We'll soon know.

Turnout, Turnout, Turnout

Is that what it's going to come down to?

Opinion Poll News

This confirms what I heard yesterday:

"The Ken v Boris battle in London is a key one for the parties but it is also a big test for pollsters as the capital’s diverse population is proving hard to read...According to a mayoral poll for The Sunday Times by Mruk Cello today, the contest is too close to call. On first preferences Ken Livingstone polled 44%, followed by Boris Johnson on 43% and Brian Paddick, the Liberal Democrat on 9%. When second preferences were assigned, Livingstone got 51%, Johnson 49%. Livingstone leads Johnson on strong leadership (53%-26%), public transport (50%-29%) and housing (39%-27%). Johnson is ahead on crime reduction (36%-32%). The poll suggests Livingstone is doing better than his party, Johnson worse. The Tories overall have a nine-point lead among London voters."

I think the crime reduction figure is the most interesting: Johnson, if memory serves, isn't as far ahead as in previous surveys.

Also in the Sunday Times is a leader favouring Johnson that is less crude than that in its daily counterpart yesterday but makes an equally unconvincing case. It too barely mentions Johnson's policies and only does this to make the point that they aren't very memorable. It too says that Livingstone hasn't been so bad, but reckons it's time for a change anyway. Tone apart, the two leaders are remarkably similar, almost as if written - or ghost-written - by the same person. A person called Rupert, possibly.