London: Mayor & More

Opinion Poll News!

It shows Livingstone ahead and by a greater margin than the only previous occasion this has happened.

UPDATE: Political Betting explains what it all means. Or might mean. As it remarks:

"It is beginning to look as though we might have a line-up of pollsters predicting entirely different outcomes to the election and that the choice for punters will be 'which firm do you trust most?' There hasn’t been an election like that in decades."

All I know is I'm glad I don't go in betting shops.

Opinion Poll News!

A new telephone survey of 1,000 people for the Sunday Times shows Livingstone leading Johnson by 45% to 44% on first preferences with Brian Paddick way back on 9%. When second preferences were included, the two frontrunners were precisely neck-and-neck. Political Betting and UK Polling Report have doubts about the track record the company, MRUK Cello. What to think? Well, MRUK, ICM and Ipsos MORI have all found the race to be very close I recent weeks. Meanwhile, YouGov - which Political Betting is inclined to think most accurate - has had Johnson ahead by twelve, ten and 13 points followed by last week's fall to six. If there's another YouGov tomorrow and Johnson's lead is down again, I suppose we must suspect that there's been a shift towards Livingstone. But beyond that...?

OPINION POLL NEWS!

Ipsos-MORI, commissioned by Unison, gives Livingstone a narrow lead. So that two pollsters who make it neck-and-neck against one that puts Johnson way ahead. This may mean something or, on the other hand...

More here from Political Betting.

Tony Travers On Ken Livingstone

He writes:

"The details of both YouGov and ICM's polls suggest Livingstone is seen as competent, but nevertheless the electorate wants a change. To counter this, the Mayor needs to make clear how he would be different in a third term. He would need to be a kinder version of his recent self. He needs one or two striking new policies. ICM's work suggests he needs to show how he would run a clean administration. And he should also make clear he would not stay around forever."

Now read on.

OPINION POLL NEWS!

What to make of them? After last weeks's ICM had them neck-and-neck, the latest YouGov has Johnson further ahead of Livingstone than ever! Political Betting has more on it and on YouGov's methodology. Team Ken is going to complain.

Political Betting Investigates

Mike Smithson's been inspecting the small print of the Guardian/ICM poll. He thinks the news isn't quite so encouraging for Livingstone as it first seemed.

Poll Details

Bit bloody small, isn't it! Interesting, though.

At The Guardian: New Poll & Time Out Hustings

As mostly written far too early this morning for my liking:

I spilled the beans at 6.40 yesterday evening under discreet questioning from a member of Team Brian.

"Do you know what's in the ICM poll, Dave?"

"Ah...yes."

I looked at my watch. I knew the findings would be posted on the politics website in just five minutes' time, but I hesitated anyway.

One reason was a reluctance to be the bearer of bad news: only ten percent of the 1,002 people asked named Paddick as their first choice for London mayor and I'd no doubt he was hoping for better. Another was that Ken Livingstone too was in the room and if I told the Paddick camp the news I'd feel bound to tell Team Ken as well. Perversely, I worried that doing so would be unfair. For Livingstone the poll told a far more cheering story than the previous two - both compiled by a different company, YouGov - which had both shown him trailing Boris Johnson by twelve and ten points respectively.

The Guardian/ICM survey put the frontrunners almost neck-and-neck. Paddick, Livingstone and Green Party candidate Sian Berry were about to take part in a hustings at the University of London Union, organised by Time Out. News of the new poll seemed sure to give Livingstone a lift. Would telling him about it be the equivalent of handing Popeye a tin of spinach? Would telling Paddick be like shoving Kryptonite up Superman's nose?

OPINION POLL NEWS!

My advice is to keep an eye on the Guardian Politics website from, oooh, about now...

Team Livingstone & The New YouGov Poll

They say its findings are "totally implausible" including at length on their own site. Well, they would say that wouldn't they? Well, yes, they might. As it happens I've heard mutterings from Team Paddick too that YouGov polls aren't reliable. Again, they would say that, wouldn't they? Again, well, yes they might. Interestingly, though, Martin at MayorWatch expressed doubts about the last YouGov poll, noting that the figure for "others" was very low, as it is in the latest one. And Martin wouldn't just say that.

Still, Peter Kellner has an answer to that point. The Guardian report says:

"Kellner said there were two main reasons for this. The amount of attention being focused on Livingstone and Johnson was making it harder for small parties to attract support, and the comparison with 2004 was unfair because the 2004 mayoral elections coincided with the European elections in which Ukip attracted a large vote."

Listen: I'm not taking sides in this one. But I'm looking forward more than ever to polls from other companies.