London: Mayor & More

Ray Lewis & David Cameron At Johnson Launch

Through a crowd and, initially, the head of Lynton Crosby, an introduction by the founder of Eastside Young Leaders Academy and most of Cameron's speech.

More later.

At The Guardian: Boris "Final Phase"

My account of this morning's events for the politics blog. More here soon.

At Comment Is Free (With Ken Livingstone)

My latest for Guardian's comment site weighs the crime and policing policies of the three leading contenders. Ken Livingstone - yes, I'm assured it's him, in person - has provided a comment. I'm hoping other candidates will contribute too. Join in here.

Ken Livingstone's Crime Manifesto

He launched it this morning, and now it's up on his site via here or straight to the pdf if you prefer. Boris finds it rather boring.

Crime Stats Hell (Part 2)

I've always been puzzled by Brian Paddick's assertion that the British Crime Survey - the most reliable guide to crime trends - shows that overall crime levels in London haven't really fallen during the present Livingstone administration. These figures have only been broken down by region for the past two (2005/2006 and 2006/2007). So how come Paddick talks about four?

The reason is that he's been relying on a GLA document called Community Safety Quarterly which - on page three, under the heading Crime and Victimisation - refers to the BCS surveying victimisation levels in London alongside a graph going back to 2002/2003 referring - it says underneath - to "crime in England and Wales," not specifically London.

This looks like an error by Paddick, although it doesn't undermine his general thesis that a lot of crime goes unreported and that the recorded crime figures issued by the Met - and which Ken Livingstone always cites - give a less accurate overall picture of crime. Mind you, far better to go to the source.

Crime Stats Hell (Part 1)

A friendly criminologist has directed me to this report from the Commons Home Affairs Committee, published last July, into police funding and its efficacy. It contains the following in the Summary on page three:

"A significant drop in overall crime as measured by the British Crime Survey (BCS) occurred between 1995 and 2001 but the downward trend has levelled off since then. In contrast, the bulk of additional police funding was provided during the second half of the last decade, from 2000–01 to 2004–05. It follows that the significant decrease in overall BCS-measured crime occurred before any significant increase in police funding or police officer numbers."

The BCS stats are regarded by most experts - including those at the Home Office - as the most reliable guide to rates of offending against persons and property. Ken Livingstone prefers to cite the Met's recorded crime figures, which show consistent falls. Whatever, if crime really has fallen on Livingstone's watch, have the increased numbers of police he takes credit for had anything to do with it? Discuss.

Big Three At Home Affairs Committee

Here's a piece I wrote for the Guardian's politics blog yesterday:

The Big Three were at Portcullis House this morning to be questioned by the Home Affairs Committee. I queued for security behind a party of chattering schoolgirls, nearly all Muslims. Beyond the x-ray machine, police officers with big guns looked on. I wondered what they all were thinking about each other, then wondered the same about the candidates as they waited with press and public in the corridor outside the Wilson Room. The presence of sketch-writers emphasised the need of all contenders not to look foolish. Their subject would be policing in the 21st Century. No joke.

Emily Thornberry MP: On Mugging

The headline in the Islington Gazette quoted her as saying "Almost every teenager in Islington has been mugged." By the time the story was, ah, picked up by the Daily Mail the "almost" had disappeared, and she had a fan in Boris Johnson: "How refreshing to hear a Labour politician speak some truth for a change rather than hiding behind statistics that do not reflect how Londoners really feel about safety on our streets." But even if Emily Thornberry is exaggerating, as the police say, I know my teenage sons are fearful of going out, I know of too many others who feel the same. Even if the police are right and "how Londoners' really feel" is wrong, I want that fear removed from children's lives. Starting now.

Brian Paddick's Book

There was a chunk of it in the Mail On Sunday. Here's Brian on his softy-softly policy on dope possession in Lambeth:

"The cannabis pilot certainly seemed to contribute to the crime turnaround in Lambeth. More people were arrested for possession of crack cocaine (up 57 per cent) and Class-A drug-dealing (up 20 per cent), while burglary fell by 18 per cent and street robberies fell from 791 to 407 per month for the period of the pilot, compared with the year before."

Ah, yes, Brian, but can be believe those stats? Teasing aside, though:

"I now believe the whole concept of the PCSO to be flawed. If we have to pay people to be the 'eyes and ears of the police', rather than relying on the public, then something has gone terribly wrong with British policing. We currently have fully trained, fully equipped police officers spending up to half their time performing administrative tasks in police stations while PCSOs patrol the streets. Surely this is the wrong way round. If we could use the money currently spent on PCSOs on keyboard operators doing the admin tasks for regular officers, we could significantly increase the amount of time each police officer spends on the street."

He's still the most compelling candidate on crime.